Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
